Over the last year or two I have been telling people that the price of oil would head back down again, a long way down. People did not listen, they assumed that the trend was one way and that this meant up with no end. People believed that this price rise meant we were dealing with peak oil and that the economy based on oil was coming to an end.
The reality is that demand for oil rose faster than the supply could keep up with. It is not that there was no potential for more oil to come onto to the market, it was simply an issue of the lag between the demand rising and the time for new supply to come online.
The higher price of oil has reduced demand, a natural part of the economic process. This has occurred as the supply has been rising. We are also now seeing a drop in demand because of the economic uncertainty in the world.
New technologies also come into play, as an example, the production of the ethanol is now equal to about 1.9 millions barrels of oil per day. I am assuming 20 gallons of gasoline produced from each barrel of oil, if assume that you need one barrel of ethanol to equal one barrel of oil, then it is only 900 000 barrels a day. This is about 1-2% of the global oil demand. As the technology gets better and the organic material used is not corn but something more productive, in ten years would could easily see 20 million barrel of oil equivalents of ethanol being produced, or about 20% of world demand.
The problem a lot of people have had when looking at the oil prices is that they do not apply any economic analysis to the situation.
The latest spike in oil prices have pushed innovation, but it has also pushed the tar sands in Alberta. Year in and year out there are going to more development of the tar sands. Only a long period of the price of oil being below $20 a barrel will halt the expansion.
The oil era is not at an end, the only thing that can be done at this time is for governments to price the cost of removing the CO2 from oil production and oil use. A carbon tax is the way forward and is a tool that will make business more efficient. Strong price signals will impact the supply and demand for oil. Nothing else will work.
BC is the leader in this. Opposition to the carbon tax in BC only makes sense if you do not believe there is an issue with global warming. I will admit I am not entirely convinced of the case for global warming or at all convinced that global warming will have as negative impact as people are saying.
You can take action by supporting the carbon tax on this facebook group.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Thursday, August 28, 2008
The Carbon Tax - Political Suicide?
The NDP is hammering the government in Victoria over the carbon tax. Initially the public seemed well dispossed to the idea of a carbon tax, but with some fanning of the flames, the NDP has developed a dislike for the carbon tax.
Federally the Liberals have also proposed a carbon tax and they are being beaten up by the Conservatives about it. Certainly the issue is not looking good as a federal election issue and may push the federal Liberals further down in the polls.
The public likes the idea of the environment, but it does not want to pay for it. It is inevitable that carbon taxes are coming, that there will be some sort of system to attach a price or cost to carbon emissions, but it is not going to be popular and the people bringing it in will be lauded in the future but not now.
Federally the Liberals have also proposed a carbon tax and they are being beaten up by the Conservatives about it. Certainly the issue is not looking good as a federal election issue and may push the federal Liberals further down in the polls.
The public likes the idea of the environment, but it does not want to pay for it. It is inevitable that carbon taxes are coming, that there will be some sort of system to attach a price or cost to carbon emissions, but it is not going to be popular and the people bringing it in will be lauded in the future but not now.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Natural Resources Canada: Government of Canada Invests in Renewable Energy in British Columbia
2008-08-20 11:00:00
Natural Resources Canada: Government of Canada Invests in Renewable Energy in British Columbia
The Honourable Gary Lunn, Minister of Natural Resources, today announced the first project, the Kwalsa low-impact hydro project near Harrison Lake, which will benefit from an investment of up to $35 million thanks to the Government of Canada.
"Our investment in the Kwalsa low-impact hydro project is another great example of how our government is delivering on its commitment to reducing emissions, increase the supply of clean, renewable energy for Canadians, and accelerate the development of a strong and competitive renewable energy industry," said Minister Lunn. "We need energy to power our economy, and we must have more clean energy to protect our health and our environment."
When it is complete, the Kwalsa Energy Project will have a total capacity of 90 megawatts from eight turbines operating on four waterways around Harrison Lake at Douglas, Fire, Stokke and Tipella Creeks. The peak electricity demands of more than 27,000 households can be met with that amount of clean electricity. The site is located about 90 kilometres northeast of Vancouver.
The project is owned by Harrison Hydro Limited Partnership, which is in turn owned by Cloudworks Energy Inc., a British Columbia-based energy firm specializing in run-of-river hydro development.
John Johnson, a principal of Cloudworks Energy Inc., was pleased that the Harrison Hydro Limited Partnership qualified for funding under the ecoENERGY for Renewable Power Initiative. "This federal program enables the Kwalsa Project to address not just the construction challenges related to building clean and renewable energy in the remote regions of this Province, but also to provide transmission grid access for the first time ever to our First Nations partners, the Douglas First Nation."
The Kwalsa Energy project has qualified for the one cent per kilowatt-hour incentive under the ecoENERGY for Renewable Power program, payable for up to 10 years to ensure the electricity it generates can be delivered to consumers at competitive rates.
Businesses, municipalities, institutions and organizations are eligible to apply for funding under ecoENERGY for Renewable Power. The program provides about $1.48 billion to increase Canada's supply of clean electricity from renewable sources such as wind, biomass, low-impact hydro, geothermal, solar photovoltaic and ocean energy. It will encourage the production of up to 4,000 megawatts of new electricity from renewable energy sources-enough electricity to power about one million homes.
FOR BROADCAST USE:
The Honourable Gary Lunn, Minister of Natural Resources Canada, has announced the Kwalsa low-impact hydro project near Harrison Lake, B.C. will receive an investment of up to $35 million thanks to the Government of Canada's ecoENERGY for Renewable Power program.
NRCan's news releases and backgrounders are available at www.nrcan.gc.ca/media.
Meet the team at Cloudworks : http://www.cloudworksenergy.com/section.php?s=13
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
2 interesting articles from the Goldstream Gazette
I find the increase in bus riders an interesting change. I wonder how this will pan out in the fall and how much of a change there is in Vancouver.
I also interested in knowing which routes in Victoria have had the biggest increase.
Fuel prices boost bus ridership
By Edward Hill - Goldstream News Gazette
Published: July 17, 2008 1:00 PM
High gas prices are finally prompting more people to hop the bus, says Ron Drolet, senior vice-president of BC Transit.
Transit saw a 11 per cent increase in ridership in late June as compared to a year earlier, after gas prices began their upward march in April. Typically, it takes a few months for pain at the pump to push people out of their cars — April only had a four per cent increase.
“We see growth every time there is a significant run up in retail gas, but there is a lag,” Drolet said. “(Early June) had normal weather. There was no intensive marketing. Obviously people are reacting to the retail prices. We’ll see if that holds true now that were at the lofty level of $1.50.”
BC Transit is planning to add 24 buses to the fleet and 60,000 service hours this September, the largest increase in Greater Victoria since the “heyday” of 1994 Commonwealth Games, Drolet said.
Where last year’s transit increases focuses on West Shore routes, this year it will be on the Saanich Peninsula, specifically the Royal Oak area.
Colwood OKs CRD climate plan
By Amy Dove - Goldstream News Gazette
Published: July 17, 2008 1:00 PM
With safeguards in place for taxpayers, Colwood council is officially supporting the Capital Regional District’s climate action plan.
The plan, which needs support from all 13 member municipalities, will see one person hired to oversee several projects.
These include a regional emission survey, ways to make buildings more energy efficient and assistance for smaller communities in finding grants.
Expected to cost $200,000 annually, Colwood councillors originally balked at the idea because it lacked an opt out clause if the service was unsatisfactory, as well as a cap on costs.
“Council unanimously supports this. We just wanted a few controls,” said Mayor Jody Twa.
“This shows we can have an opt out clause (on various CRD functions),” added Coun. Ernie Robertson.
The CRD board added Colwood’s requests to its climate action bylaw last week. In order for those two items to be added the rollout of the service has been delayed by at least six months, said Dwayne Kalynchuk, CRD environmental services general manager.
Each municipality will have to vote on the bylaw again before it can be enacted. Colwood was the only council which reserved support the first round.
reporter@goldstreamgazette.com
I also interested in knowing which routes in Victoria have had the biggest increase.
Fuel prices boost bus ridership
By Edward Hill - Goldstream News Gazette
Published: July 17, 2008 1:00 PM
High gas prices are finally prompting more people to hop the bus, says Ron Drolet, senior vice-president of BC Transit.
Transit saw a 11 per cent increase in ridership in late June as compared to a year earlier, after gas prices began their upward march in April. Typically, it takes a few months for pain at the pump to push people out of their cars — April only had a four per cent increase.
“We see growth every time there is a significant run up in retail gas, but there is a lag,” Drolet said. “(Early June) had normal weather. There was no intensive marketing. Obviously people are reacting to the retail prices. We’ll see if that holds true now that were at the lofty level of $1.50.”
BC Transit is planning to add 24 buses to the fleet and 60,000 service hours this September, the largest increase in Greater Victoria since the “heyday” of 1994 Commonwealth Games, Drolet said.
Where last year’s transit increases focuses on West Shore routes, this year it will be on the Saanich Peninsula, specifically the Royal Oak area.
Colwood OKs CRD climate plan
By Amy Dove - Goldstream News Gazette
Published: July 17, 2008 1:00 PM
With safeguards in place for taxpayers, Colwood council is officially supporting the Capital Regional District’s climate action plan.
The plan, which needs support from all 13 member municipalities, will see one person hired to oversee several projects.
These include a regional emission survey, ways to make buildings more energy efficient and assistance for smaller communities in finding grants.
Expected to cost $200,000 annually, Colwood councillors originally balked at the idea because it lacked an opt out clause if the service was unsatisfactory, as well as a cap on costs.
“Council unanimously supports this. We just wanted a few controls,” said Mayor Jody Twa.
“This shows we can have an opt out clause (on various CRD functions),” added Coun. Ernie Robertson.
The CRD board added Colwood’s requests to its climate action bylaw last week. In order for those two items to be added the rollout of the service has been delayed by at least six months, said Dwayne Kalynchuk, CRD environmental services general manager.
Each municipality will have to vote on the bylaw again before it can be enacted. Colwood was the only council which reserved support the first round.
reporter@goldstreamgazette.com
BC Goverment to be Carbon Neutral in 2 years
The current government in BC is moving light years ahead of anywhere else in North America in relation to climate change issues.
We have a carbon tax - though there is now a backlash against the tax from the left.
We have a comprehensive climate change plan - though once again, the left seems to dislike it
The government has given $90 000 000 to the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions
And the government itself is preparing to be carbon neutral by 2010 - which means a market for 600 000 to 900 000 tonnes of CO2 offsets, a great kick start to the system of offsets sales here in BC.
What this all means is that Gordon Campbell is clearly the greenest major politician in Canadian history.
We have a carbon tax - though there is now a backlash against the tax from the left.
We have a comprehensive climate change plan - though once again, the left seems to dislike it
The government has given $90 000 000 to the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions
And the government itself is preparing to be carbon neutral by 2010 - which means a market for 600 000 to 900 000 tonnes of CO2 offsets, a great kick start to the system of offsets sales here in BC.
What this all means is that Gordon Campbell is clearly the greenest major politician in Canadian history.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Hypermiling and such stuff
I found this very interesting graphic online. It shows where the energy in a car is going. The top is city driving and bottom is highway driving.
The first big thing that you can see is that only 4-7% of the energy actually ends up making the car go forward.
The second thing you can see is that standby - or idling - uses more energy in city driving than driving and braking. 17% of the energy into the car goes into idling.
The third thing you can see is how much energy is lost in the engine - over 60%, close to 70%. There is clearly a huge potential for industry to improve fuel economy by improving engine efficiency.
So what can we as drivers control? Only a few aspects
* Idling
* Aero resistance
* Braking
If we change our driving habits, we can reduce the loses.
Idling - if we can reduce our urban idling by 50%, frees up 8% more energy to flow into the rest of the system, about 1/2 of that will be lost in the engine, but this still gives a boost to 23% of the energy actually making it to the driveline instead of 19%. This means 17% goes through to driving the car.
Braking is the next area where you can gain a reasonable amount. Each time you use the brakes, you are wasting the energy you used to get up to speed. By driving with a fair amount of distance between you and the next car and by looking ahead to the lights and letting the car coast to the light, you can cut your braking in half again. These two things are the main differences between a hybrid and a regular car. They do not idle and they use the brakes to recharge the batteries.
If you idle less, and this does mean turning off the car each time you stop for even a few seconds, and if you drive as if the brakes do not work, you can very quickly get highway mileage for your car in the city. Saving 15 to 20% in fuel is easy.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Turning off your car at traffic lights
About three years ago I had a chance to drive a Prius. Once I was in the car and driving it, I realized that the single biggest thing the Prius did to save fuel was to have the engine turned off when you do not need it.
I decided to adapt one aspect of this to my driving - I turn off my car at traffic lights. When I am driving in the city I am amazed at how long I sit at lights. There are some rather long ones in Victoria and the benefit is clear - I can save as much as 300 ml at some of the lights.
This issue was the subject of an editorial on CFAX today with the station coming out against the idea because it would make no difference.
I have been doing this most of the time for about three years now. I have not seen any issues with my starter, that was my initial concern. I estimate that I am saving about 200 litres a year doing this at the moment, more than enough to buy a new starter every six months at current prices.
I turn on my car an extra six times a day on average because of this. Without this I would be turning the car on average six times a day total.
I have researched the issue as much as is possible - google hypermiling for extreme tips on how to save gas. I have not found any data that points to what I am doing as being bad for the car or not being useful in saving fuel. The only issue I can not answer with certainty is the time one needs to have an engine off to save an fuel. I have seen all manner of estimates, the best I can find is that anything more than five seconds will save you fuel.
One argument against it is that I am not in control of my car - well, I am in control, it is not moving. No stationary car has ever caused or been the reason for an accident. All accidents are caused by moving cars. Slowing your car down and coming to a stop is always the best option in a dangerous situation - yes, I am sure someone can come up with some odd situation where this would not be the case, but they are reaching and I am sure I could solve the same situation by stopping the car.
I decided to adapt one aspect of this to my driving - I turn off my car at traffic lights. When I am driving in the city I am amazed at how long I sit at lights. There are some rather long ones in Victoria and the benefit is clear - I can save as much as 300 ml at some of the lights.
This issue was the subject of an editorial on CFAX today with the station coming out against the idea because it would make no difference.
I have been doing this most of the time for about three years now. I have not seen any issues with my starter, that was my initial concern. I estimate that I am saving about 200 litres a year doing this at the moment, more than enough to buy a new starter every six months at current prices.
I turn on my car an extra six times a day on average because of this. Without this I would be turning the car on average six times a day total.
I have researched the issue as much as is possible - google hypermiling for extreme tips on how to save gas. I have not found any data that points to what I am doing as being bad for the car or not being useful in saving fuel. The only issue I can not answer with certainty is the time one needs to have an engine off to save an fuel. I have seen all manner of estimates, the best I can find is that anything more than five seconds will save you fuel.
One argument against it is that I am not in control of my car - well, I am in control, it is not moving. No stationary car has ever caused or been the reason for an accident. All accidents are caused by moving cars. Slowing your car down and coming to a stop is always the best option in a dangerous situation - yes, I am sure someone can come up with some odd situation where this would not be the case, but they are reaching and I am sure I could solve the same situation by stopping the car.
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